Trade Patterns

1. Soft Power and Exports

   Since soft power helps exports, unpopular leaders like Trump lower exports of their countries

   [Current Version] [Review of International Economics 2019] [CEPR DP 13] [NBER WP 25.439] [Data Set] [Key Output] [PPT] [PRN Presentation] [Converge by FAZ] [CNBC]


2. Soft Power, Sanctions and Exports: Checking the BS in BDS

   Even if the S in BDS is BS, the B is not.

   [Current Version]

   (PDF)

   [Key Output] STATA data set.


3. Like Me, Buy Me: The Effect of Soft Power on Exports

   Countries that are seen to be a force for good by others, export more.

   [Current Version] [Econonics and Politics 2016] [CEPR DP 10.713] [NBER WP 21537] [Key Output] [STATA data set]


4. Who Benefits from Regional Trade Agreements? The View from the Stock Market

   Stock markets rise for RTAs between countries that already export a lot, and for poor countries.

   [Current Version] [European Economic Review.2014] [NBER WP 17415] [CEPR DP 8566] [Key output and data for final version] [Online Appendix] [Slides for presentation] [Converge by Economist]


5. Protectionism Isn't Counter-Cyclic (anymore)
   

   Barriers to trade like tariffs and quotas don't change much over the business cycle

   [Economic Policy 2013] [NBER WP 18062] [CEPR DP 8937] [Current Version] [Original Draft] [PowerPoint Slides]

   Current draft

   [Key Output] [STATA datasets] [Figures]

   Original draft

   [Key Output] [STATA datasets]


6. Why do Trade Negotiations Take So Long?

   Regional trade agreement negotiations are shorter if the countries are closer, richer, more open and fewer.

   [Journal of Economic Integration] [Edward Elgar]
   

   in European Integration in a Global Economic Setting – CESEE and the Impact of China and Russia (edited by Nowotny, E., Mooslechner, P., and Ritzberger-Grünwald, D.)

   [CEPR DP 8993] [Current Version] [Key Output]


7. The Olympic Effect

   Countries that try to host mega-events may really be trying to signal trade liberalization.

   [Economic Journal 2011] [Current Version] [Revised Version] [Longer version] [Shorter Version] [Overhead Slides] [Sample Output] [Revision Output] [STATA Dataset] [CERP DP 7248]
   

   https://www.nber.org/papers/w14854

   [NPR Coverage]


8. The Effect of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Trade: Where Do We Stand?

   I review the evidence on the trade effects of WTO membership.

   In Is the World Trade Organization attractive enough for emerging economic (edited by Zdenek Drabek).

   A draft is available as a PDF file as in a marginal different version for the Handbook of Economic Integration (edited by Miroslav Jovanovic).

   [PDF]


9. The Foreign Service and Foreign Trade: Embassies as Export Promotion

   Embassies and consulates have a small positive effect on exports.

   [The World Economy. 2007] [NBER DP 11111] [CEPR DP 4953] [Current Version] [Revised Version] [data set] [key STATA output] [Output of revised one]
   

   The paper is summarized in the August 2005 NBER Digest.
   Forbes covered this in 9/2005 Corriere della Sera covered this in 9/2005 (easy to read ... if you speak Italian). Overhead transparencies are available as a PDF file

   • If you’re interested in this, you may want to check out “Measuring the Impact of Regional Export Promotion: The Spanish Case"by Gill-Pareja,Llorca-Viero, and Martínez-Serrano (University of Valencia).
     1. 
        Another related paper is “State Visits and International Trade” by Volker Nitsch
     
     
     2. Also of interest is “The Impact of Embassies and Consulates on Tourism” by Gill Pareja, Llorca-Viero, and Martínez-Serrano (University of Valencia).
     
     
     3. More papers of relevance; "Diplomatic Relations and Trade Reorientation in Transition Countries"by Maurel and Afman; "The Effect of Foreign Service on Trade Volumes and Trade Partners"" by Segura-Cayuela and Vilarrubia; "Is Economic and Commercial Diplomacy Useful for Developing Countries?" by Yakop and van Bergeijk;"Export Promotion Agencies" by Lederman, Olarreaga, and Payton; "Sizing up the Uneven Impact of Embassies on Exports" by Ferguson and Forslid.


10. Macroeconomic Determinants of International Trade

    : I survey my work on trade, currency unions, the WTO, and sovereign debt.

    [NBER Report] [Fall 2004] [Current Version]
11. Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?

    Membership in the GATT/WTO has no effect on trade volatility.

    [Open Economic Review 2005] [NBER WP 10207] [CEPR DP 3764] [MAS OP 27] [Current Version] [Revised Version] [STATA Data set] [Sample Output] [Output and data to revised]


12. Which International Institutions Promote International Trade?

    The OECD works better (and the IMF and GATT/WTO worse) then you might think in promoting trade.

    [Review of International Economics 2005] [CEPR DP 3764] [Current Version] [Revised Version] [STATA data set] [Output] [Output of Revised Version]


13. Do We Really Know that the WTO increases Trade?

    Countries in the GATT/WTO don’t trade much more than non-members.

    American Economic Review 2004. NBER WP 9273. CEPR DP 3538. HKIMR WP 18/2002. MAS Occasional Paper No. 24. RSC No. 2003/15 (EUI). A fuller draft is available as a PDF file, as is a shortened version. This was summarized in the May 2003 NBER Digest. Supporting output. The bilateral data set is available in zipped STATAT rades Patterns/ 7.0 format (35MB). Note that there is a (small) error in the data set. The Penn World Table mark 6 is available elsewhere. Overheads are available as a PDF file and the PowerPoint show is also available. I sometimes refer to the actual GATT; here are some GATT articles of interest. There’s been coverage on BBC TV and radio, in the Financial Times (there’s a response in the FT from the WTO’s chief economist on Nov 14, 2002 and other responses on Nov 20 and Nov 21), theEconomist (here’s an easy version to print), a reprise from The Economist (easier to print), Bloo target="_blank"mberg, Libération, Foreign Policy, and the Financial Post (here’s an easier version to print). If you’re into non-sequiturs, check out The Road to Surfdom. I’ve been called “irreverent and contrarian” in front of the House Ways and Means committee (goodness me!). The CEPR has a press release. My son is thanked; here’s why.

    1. Arvind Subramanian and Shang-Jin Wei have circulated their critique “The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly but Unevenly” NBER Working Paper 10,024. My response is available as a PDF file. Supporting output and the multilateral data sets (in STATA 8.2 format) are available in a zipped file.

    
    

    2. Goldstein, Rivers, and Tomz are circulating a critique entitled “Membership has its Privileges: The Impact of GATT on International Trade”. My early response is available as a PDF file a revision will be published in the AER as “The Gatt: It’s Everywhere You Want it to Be.” Supporting output is available in a zipped file.

    
    

    3. Another pair of critiques are “Evaluating WTO Accessions” and “WTO Membership and Market Access” by Evenett, Gage and Kennett.

    
    

    4. If you are interested in this area, other papers of relevance include:

       1. “Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade” by Felbermayr and Kohler,
       2. “A Very Exclusive Club: The Effects of GATT, 1950-92” by Gowa and Kim,
       3. “WTO and Growth” by Li and Wu,
       4. “GATT/WTO Promotes Trade Strongly: Sample Selection and Model Specification” by Liu,
       5. “Russia and the WTO: The ‘Gravity’ of Outsider Status” by Lissovolik and Lissovolik, and
       6. “How Important is State Enforcement for Trade?” by Leeson.
       7. “Trading Partners and Trading Volumes” by Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein.
       8. “Demystifying Modelling Methods for Trade Policy” by Piermartini and Teh.
       9. “Joining the World Trade Organization: It’s All About the Exports” by Christopher Balding.
       10. “What is Known about the Effects of WTO Accession on Developing Countries?” by Evenett
       11. “On the Emergence of an MFN Club” by Saggi and Sengul
       12. “Do the WTO and the GSP foster bilateral trade " by Herz and Wagner
       13. “The WTO Trade Effect” by Chang and Lee.
       14. “The Impact of the GATT/WTO on Trade: Formal Members vs. Non-member Participants” by Liu.
       15. “In Search of WTO Trade Effects” by Eicher and Hennn.
       16. “Corruption and Bilateral Trade Flows” by Dutt and Traca.
       17. “Properly Measuring the Impact of Multilateral Institutions on World Trade" by Kim. My response is available as a PDF file.
       18. “WTO Membership and the Extensive Margin of World Trade" by Felbermayr and Kohler.
       19. “Is the WTO Mystery Really Solved?" by Jayjit Roy.
       20. “Agriculture and the WTO" by Boys and Grant.
       21. “Does WTO Matter for the Extensive and the Intensive Margins of Trade" by Dutt, Mihov and Van Zandt.
       22. “Does the GATT/WTO Promote Trade? After All,Rose was Right" by Esteve-Perez,Gil-Pareja, and Llorca-Vivero.



14. Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting out the Causality

    Trade isn’t bad for the environment.

    [ The Review of Economics and Statistics 2005.] [NBER WP 9201] [Current Version] [Shorter Version] [STATA data set] [Key Output] [ Reviewed in NBER Digest, November 2002.]
15. If you are interested in this work, you should read “ The Environmental Consequences of Trade” by Millimet


16. Using the Gravity Model to Differentiate Among Alternative Theories of Trade

    There’s more to gravity than you think.

    [NBER WP #6804] [CEPR DP No. 2035] [Current Version] [Revised Version] [STATA data set] [Sample Output]


17. Putting Things in Order: Trade Dynamics and Product Cycles

    Countries and goods can be ordered by export timing.

    [Review of Economics and Statistics 2000] [NBER WP 5975] [CEPR DP 1629] [Current Version] [STATA data set (raw data)] [STATA data set(country rankings)] [STATA dictionary]


18. Dynamic Measures of Competitiveness: Are the Geese Still Flying in Formation?

    Asians export in an order.

    [Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 1997.] [Current Version]

Sovereign Default and Trade

1. Non-Economic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties

   Joining international environmental treaties has economic benefits.

   [Journal of Money] [NBER WP 13.988] [CEPR DP 5942] [Current Version] [Older Version] [Overhead Slides] [Summary] [Revelant Data] [Output] A related paper "International Environmental Arrangements and International Commerce" is in Steven Brakman and Peter A. G. van Bergeijk, eds., Recent Applications of the Gravity Model, (Cambridge University Press).


2. Macroeconomic Determinants of International Trade

   I survey my work on trade, currency unions, the WTO, and sovereign debt.

   [NBER Reporter Fall 2004] [Current Version]


3. A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default, and Credit

   International loans follow trade patterns.

   [IMF Staff Papers 2004] [NBER WP 9285] [CEPR DP 3539] [Current Version] [Overhead Slides] [PowerPoint Presentation] [Sample Output] [STATA 7.0]
   • If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the excellent discussion provided by Mark Wright.


4. One Reason Countries Pay their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade

   Sovereign default is followed by shrinking trade.

   [One of JDE's top-10 cited papers during 2005-09.] [ Journal of Development Economics 2005.] [FRBNY Staff Report No 142] [CEPR DP 3157] [HKIMR WP 4/2002] [NBER WP 8853] [Long Draft] [Condensed Draft] [STATA data set] [Details on Paris Club renegotiations are available as an Excel spreadsheet.] [Details on Paris Club renegotiations are available as an Excel spreadsheet.] [Sample Output] [Overhead Transparencies PDF]
   1. Jose Vicente Martinez and Guido Sandleris at Columbia Economics are circulating a critique “Is it Punishment? Sovereign Defaults and the Decline in Trade.” My response is available as a PDF file.
   2. You may also be interested in “ Supersanctions and Sovereign Debt Repayment” by Mitchener and Wedienmier
   3. Another recent reference/critique is “The Trade Costs of Default” by Eduardo Borenszteinand Ugo Panizza

The Multilateral (GATT/WTO) System and Trade

1. The Effect of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Trade: Where Do We Stand?

   I review the evidence on the trade effects of WTO membership.

   [Is the World Trade Organization Attractive Enough for Emerging Economies?] [Current Version] [Marginally different version]


2. Macroeconomic Determinants of International Trade

   I survey my work on trade, currency unions, the WTO, and sovereign debt.

   [ NBER Reporter,Fall 2004] [Current Version]


3. Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?

   Membership in the GATT/WTO has no effect on trade volatility.

   [ Open Economies Review 2005.] [NBER WP 10207.] [CEPR DP 4246.] [MAS OP 27.] [Current Version] [Revised Version] [STATA data set] [Sample Output] [Output data specific]


4. Notes on the Effects of WTO Membership on FDI and Services

   Countries in the GATT/WTO don’t have more FDI flows or trade in services

   [Current Version] [HTML Version]


5. Which International Institutions Promote International Trade?

   The OECD works better (and the IMF and GATT/WTO worse) then you might think in promoting trade.

   [ Review of International Economics 2005] [CEPR DP 3764] [Current Version] [Revised Version] [STATA dataset] [Sample Output] [Few Checks]


6. Do WTO Members have More Liberal Trade Policy?

   Countries in the GATT/WTO don’t have more liberal trade policy.

   [Journal of International Economics 2004.] [NBER WP 9347.] [CEPR DP 3659.] [Current Version] [Revised Version] [This was summarized in the May 2003 NBER Digest.] [Tables] [zipped STATA 7.0 format] [zipped ASCII as dictionary] [zipped ASCII as outsheets] [Sample Output] [Supplemental Material]
   1. If you are interested in this area, other papers of relevance include:
      • “A Very Exclusive Club: The Effects of GATT, 1950-92” by Gowa and Kim,
      • “What is Known about the Effects of WTO Accession on Developing Countries?” by Evenett
      • “On the Emergence of an MFN Club”
      by Saggi and Sengul


7. Do We Really Know that the WTO increases Trade?

   Countries in the GATT/WTO don’t trade much more than non-members.

   American Economic Review 2004. NBER WP 9273. CEPR DP 3538. HKIMR WP 18/2002. MAS Occasional Paper No. 24. RSC No. 2003/15 (EUI). A fuller draft is available as a PDF file, as is a shortened version. This was summarized in the May 2003 NBER Digest. Supporting output. The bilateral data set is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format (35MB). Note that there is a (small) error in the data set. The Penn World Table mark 6 is available elsewhere. Overheads are available as a PDF file and the PowerPoint show is also available. I sometimes refer to the actual GATT; here are some GATT articles of interest. There’s been coverage on BBC TV and radio, in the Financial Times (there’s a response in the FT from the WTO’s chief economist on Nov 14, 2002 and other responses on Nov 20 and Nov 21), theEconomist (here’s an easy version to print), a reprise from The Economist (easier to print), Bloomberg, Libération, Foreign Policy, and the Financial Post (here’s an easier version to print). If you’re into non-sequiturs, check out The Road to Surfdom. I’ve been called “irreverent and contrarian” in front of the House Ways and Means committee (goodness me!). The CEPR has a press release. My son is thanked; here’s why.

   1. Arvind Subramanian and Shang-Jin Wei have circulated their critique “The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly but Unevenly” NBER Working Paper 10,024. My response is available as a PDF file. Supporting output and the multilateral data sets (in STATA 8.2 format) are available in a zipped file.

   
   

   2. Goldstein, Rivers, and Tomz are circulating a critique entitled “Membership has its Privileges: The Impact of GATT on International Trade”. My early response is available as a PDF file a revision will be published in the AER as “The Gatt: It’s Everywhere You Want it to Be.” Supporting output is available in a zipped file.

   
   

   3. Another pair of critiques are “Evaluating WTO Accessions” and “WTO Membership and Market Access” by Evenett, Gage and Kennett.

   
   

   4. If you are interested in this area, other papers of relevance include:

      1. “Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade” by Felbermayr and Kohler,
      2. “A Very Exclusive Club: The Effects of GATT, 1950-92” by Gowa and Kim,
      3. “WTO and Growth” by Li and Wu,
      4. “GATT/WTO Promotes Trade Strongly: Sample Selection and Model Specification” by Liu,
      5. “Russia and the WTO: The ‘Gravity’ of Outsider Status” by Lissovolik and Lissovolik, and
      6. “How Important is State Enforcement for Trade?” by Leeson.
      7. “Trading Partners and Trading Volumes” by Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein.
      8. “Demystifying Modelling Methods for Trade Policy” by Piermartini and Teh.
      9. “Joining the World Trade Organization: It’s All About the Exports” by Christopher Balding.
      10. “What is Known about the Effects of WTO Accession on Developing Countries?” by Evenett
      11. “On the Emergence of an MFN Club” by Saggi and Sengul
      12. “Do the WTO and the GSP foster bilateral trade " by Herz and Wagner
      13. “The WTO Trade Effect” by Chang and Lee.
      14. “The Impact of the GATT/WTO on Trade: Formal Members vs. Non-member Participants” by Liu.
      15. “In Search of WTO Trade Effects” by Eicher and Hennn.
      16. “Corruption and Bilateral Trade Flows” by Dutt and Traca.
      17. “Properly Measuring the Impact of Multilateral Institutions on World Trade" by Kim. My response is available as a PDF file.
      18. “WTO Membership and the Extensive Margin of World Trade" by Felbermayr and Kohler.
      19. “Is the WTO Mystery Really Solved?" by Jayjit Roy.
      20. “Agriculture and the WTO" by Boys and Grant.
      21. “Does WTO Matter for the Extensive and the Intensive Margins of Trade" by Dutt, Mihov and Van Zandt.
      22. “Does the GATT/WTO Promote Trade? After All,Rose was Right" by Esteve-Perez,Gil-Pareja, and Llorca-Vivero.

Trade and the Environment

1. Non-Economic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties

   Joining international environmental treaties has economic benefits.

   [Journal of Money,] [NBER WP 13,988.] [CEPR DP 5942.] [Current Version] [Older Version] [Overhead Version PDF] [Summary] [ZIP Version] [Output] A related paper "International Environmental Arrangements and International Commerce" is in Steven Brakman and Peter A. G. van Bergeijk, eds., Recent Applications of the Gravity Model, (Cambridge University Press).


2. Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting out the Causality

   Trade isn’t bad for the environment.

   [ The Review of Economics and Statistics 2005.] [NBER WP 9201.] [Current Version] [Shorter Version] [STATA data set] [Key Output] [Reviewed in NBER Digest, November 2002.]
   • If you are interested in this work, you should read “ The Environmental Consequences of Trade” by Millimet

Protectionism

1. The Macro-Economy After Tariffs

   Tariffs are bad news; they lower output and productivity, raise unemployment and inequality, appreciate the exchange rate and have little effect on the trade balance.

   [Current Version] [CEPR DP 13,389] [NBER WP 25,042.] [Data set, Program and Output] [PPT]


2. Who Benefits from Regional Trade Agreements? The View from the Stock Market

   Stock markets rise for RTAs between countries that already export a lot, and for poor countries.

   [European Economic Review, 2014.] [Current Version] [NBER WP 17415] [ CEPR DP 8566.] [Output] [Online Appendix] [PPT]
   • Coverage by Economist


3. Protectionism Isn't Counter-Cyclic (anymore)

   Barriers to trade like tariffs and quotas don't change much over the business cycle.

   [ Economic Policy 2013.] [NBER WP 18062.] [CEPR DP 8937.] [Current Version] [Original Version] [PPT] [Current Key Output] [Current STATA Data set] [Current Version Figures] [Original Key Outpu] [Original STATA data set]


4. Why do Trade Negotiations Take So Long?

   Regional trade agreement negotiations are shorter if the countries are closer, richer, more open and fewer.

   [Journal of Economic Integration.] and Edward Elgar in European Integration in a Global Economic Setting – CESEE and the Impact of China and Russia (edited by Nowotny, E., Mooslechner, P., and Ritzberger-Grünwald, D.) [CEPR DP 8993.] [Current Version] [Key Output]


5. Financial Protectionism? First Evidence

   After non-British banks are nationalized, they contract their British lending and raise interest rates; first evidence of financial protectionism.

   [Revised Version] [Older Version] [Journal of Finance,] [NBER WP 17073 ] [ CEPR DP 8404 ] [Bank of England External MPC DP 32] [Non-Technical Version] [Overhead Slides] [Appendix] [Comparision With Ait-Sahalia etal] [Key Output] The data set cannot be posted (it's confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I'll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn't reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).
   • If you are interested in work like this, consider reading "Crises, Rescues and Policy Transmission Through International Banks" by Buch, Koch, and Kotter, and " The Flight Home Effect" by Gianetti and Laeven.
   
   
   • Coverage from City AM, the Independent, and the Telegraph.

The Effects of Currency Unions/Dollarization on Trade

1. Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary So Much?

   If you want an accurate estimate of the EMU effect on trade, include lots of countries and years

   [Open Economies Review] [NBER WP 22,678] [Current version] [Shorter version] CEPR DP 11,532 [PPT] [Key Output] [data]

   If you’re interested in this work, you should check out "The Euro's Trade Effect: A Meta-Analysis" by Polak

2. Currency Unions and Trade: A Post-EMU Reassessment

   EMU leads exports to rise by 50% even with 55,000 fixed effects

   [European Economic review, 2016] [CEPR DP 10,615] [NBER WP 21535] [Current Version(PDF)] [PPT] [Heidelberg version] [Valencia version] [Key Output] [STATA data sets] [extended STATA data set on export with dis-aggregate CUs/RTAs] [STATA data set used in final revision]

   If you’re interested in this work, you should check out"The Currency Union Effect" by Larch, Wanner, Yotov and Zylkin

3. Is EMU Becoming an Optimum Currency Area? The Evidence on Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization

   Most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles; so EMU is becoming an OCA.

   [PDF] [Dataset and key output(Zip file)]
4. EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization

   Most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles.

   [Current Version] [DataSet and key Output] [Slides] [First Decade of Economic and Monetary fund]
5. EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization: What Do We Know and What Does it Mean for Poland?

   Poland is a good candidate for EMU accession on the basis of its trade and business cycle synchronization with the eurozone.

   [National Bank of Poland's Report on Adopting the Euro] [Available as a PDF file.] National Bank of Poland's Report on Adopting the Euro. [Polish DataSet(Zip file)] [Slides]
6. Recent (as of 2005) developments in OCA Empirics
8. A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade

   Most people find currency unions raise trade a lot

   [Journal economic Surveys 2005] [CEPR DP 4341] [Available in early draft form as PDF file] [The dataset and key output(zip file)] [A set of overheads for a talk(as a PDF file)]
9. The Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade: Where Do We Stand?

   even more people find currency unions raise trade a lot.

   [MAS OP 22] [PDF] [Excel Data] [Sample Output]
10. The Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade: A Meta-Analysis

    most people find currency unions raise trade a lot. In Monetary Unions and Hard Pegs: Effects on Trade, Financial Development, and Stability (Alexander, Mélitz, and von Furstenberg, eds, Oxford, 2004).

    [PDF] [EXCEL] [Sample Output] [A set of overheads for a talk(PDF)]
11. Does a Currency Union affect Trade? The Time-Series Evidence

    leaving a currency union halves trade. The European Economic Review 2002. A revised draft is available as a PDF file; earlier versions are available as CEPR DP 2891 and NBER WP 8396. The (relevant part) of the data set is available as a STATA 7.0 data set. Sample output (for Tables 1-5) is also available. Overhead transparencies for talks are available as a PDF file. Another paper of relevance is “Is Gravity Linear?” by Henderson and Millimet

    [The European Economic Review 2002] [Revised draft(PDF)] [CEPR DP 2891] [NBER WP 8396] [STATA 7.0] [Sample output (for Tables 1-5) is also available.] [Overhead transparencies for talks are available as a PDF file.]

    Another paper of relevance is “Is Gravity Linear?” by Henderson and Millimet

    [Is Gravity Linear]
12. Honey, the Currency Union Effect on Trade Hasn’t Blown Up

    Currency unions raise trade a lot.

    [The World Economy 2002] [PDF] [Honey, I Shrunk the Currency Union Effect on Trade” which is also in The World Economy 2002.]
13. National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union

    Currency unions raise trade and welfare a lot.

    [American Economic Review] [Draft(in PDF)] [Revision] [Key Table] [Sample Output] [Bilateral DataSet] [The data and Gauss programs used to compute the results in Table 2 are available]
14. One Money, One Market: Estimating The Effect of Common Currencies on Trade

    currency unions raise trade a lot. Economic Policy 2000.

    [Economic Policy] [PDF] [More accessible version] [California Management Review 2000] [Abstract and non-tech summary] [STATA Data set] [ACII dictionary file] [Errors by scholars] [Sample Output(Table 1)] [IIES seminar paper no.678] [NBER WP 7432] [CEPR] [FRBSF Economic Letter “Do Currency Unions Increase Trade?] [Wall St.Journal quotation] [Economist quotation] [Overhead Transparencies]
1. Torsten Perssonhas circulated a critique that questions my results using matching techniques the final version is in Economic Policy 2001. Here is my original response , which questions his methods and confirms my results using a variety of techniques and a new data set. The overhead transparencies I used at the conference are also available. A more refined final version of the response is in Economic Policy 2001;some of the key output for it is available.
2. Volker Nitsch has written another critique that is in The World Economy 2002. Here is my quick response to his initial draft: my formal response “Honey, the Currency Union Effect on Trade Hasn’t Blown Up” is also in The World Economy 2002 is also available as a PDF file.
3. Yet another critique comes from Michael Pakko and Howard Wall. Their article was published without my being offered the possibility of a response, so my formal response will appear only on the web. Since the authors simply add dyadic fixed effects to my original data set, the real response is my paper with Glick.
4. Brendan Walsh has written (with Rodney Thom) a paper that focuses on the consequences of the dissolution of the Irish link to sterling in 1979 as a case study inconsistent with my general findings. My response is in my paper with Glick.
5. The Economic Research Forum provides another critical summary of some of this research.
6. While I have (as of September 2001) responded to all reasonable comments/critiques of my work, I make no commitment to doing so in the future. I’m no longer working directly on the topic, and life goes on!
7. Silvana Tenreyro has circulated as her job-market paper “On the Causes and Consequences of Currency Unions”. She asserts (among other things) that my estimate (of the effect of currency union on trade) is halved when trade data is averaged across years; I am currently unable to replicate this finding which may be the result of her using a less complete (WTDB) data set than is available (though the IMF’s DoT). Here’s my output
8. Euro-know provides a critique of some of my research and characterizes it as heroic and honest but warns that I may be “a pawn in a ruthless power game."Gosh.
9. William Bomberger has a critique associated with decolonization.  Here’s my response as a PDF file
10. Bo Malmberg published an influential op-ed in Dagens Nyheter (here’s an English translation); here’s my response
11. Albrecht Ritschl and Niko Wolf are circulating “Endogeneity of Currency Areas and Trade Blocs: Evidence from the Inter-War Period” (CEPR DP 4112) which claims to find evidence of endogeneity in the currency union effect.  It may be there, but they certainly haven’t found it since they equate fixed exchange rates with currency unions (according to them Germany was in a currency union with New Zealand in the interwar period).Check out my brief response available as a PDF file.
12. If you’re interested in the topic, you may want to check out: “Geography, Trade and Currency Union” by Jacques Mélitz (CEPR DP 2987), “Limiting Currency Volatility to Stimulate Goods Market Integration: A Price Based Approach” by Parsley and Wei (NBER WP 8468), “Monetary Union, Trade Integration, and Business Cycles …” by Flandreau and Maurel (CEPR DP 3087), “Dollarization and Trade” by Klein (here’s my response to Klein), “On the Impact of a Common Currency on Bilateral Trade” by Levy Yeyati, “Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade” by López-Córdova and Meissner, “Optimal Currency Areas” by Alesina, Barro and Tenreyro (the final version gives even larger estimates!), “Currency Unions and Gravity Models Revisited” by Christie Smith,
13. “The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from the European Union” by Micco, Stein, and Ordoñez, “Common Currency as an Export Promoting Strategy” by Ayako Saiki (Brandeis), “Language and Foreign Trade” by Jacques Melitz, “Have a Break …” by Volker Nitsch, “Currency Unions and Trade” by Peter Kenen, “Disintegration and Trade” by Fidrmuc and Fidrmuc (ULB), “Has the Euro Increased Trade?” by Bun and Klaassen (Amsterdam), “Trade Effects of Monetary Integration in Large, Mature Economies” by Vinhas de Souza (Kiel), “Monetary Unions and Trade” by Lochard “The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from the European Union” by Micco, Stein, and Ordoñez, “Common Currency as an Export Promoting Strategy” by Ayako Saiki (Brandeis), “Language and Foreign Trade” by Jacques Melitz, “Have a Break …” by Volker Nitsch, “Currency Unions and Trade” by Peter Kenen, “Disintegration and Trade” by Fidrmuc and Fidrmuc (ULB), “Has the Euro Increased Trade?” by Bun and Klaassen (Amsterdam), “Trade Effects of Monetary Integration in Large, Mature Economies” by Vinhas de Souza (Kiel), “Monetary Unions and Trade” by Lochard (Sorbonne), “Trade volume effects of the euro” by Flam and Nordström (IIES), “The Impact of Monetary Union on Trade Prices” by Baldwin and Taglioni, “The Impact of Euro on Trade” by de Nardis and Vicarelli, “The Euro and Trade” by Graham, Helliwell, Kano, Murray, and Schembri (Bank of Canada), “Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade” by Klein and Shambaugh, “Trade Effects of the Euro: Evidence from Sectoral Data” by Baldwin, Skudelny, Taglioni and “Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Linkages” by Lee and Shin, “Monte Carlo Appraisals of Gravity Model Specifications” by Anderson, Ferrantino and Schaefer (here’s my response), “Currency Blocs and Cross-Border Investment” by Choi and Wei, “The Currency Union Effect on Trade and the FDI Channel” by de Sousa and Lochard, “One Market, One Money, One Price?” by Allington, Kattuman, and Waldmann (Cambridge).(If you want to add something to this list, just send me an e-mail with a linkable paper of relevance).
14. An excellent recent (May 2005) review of this entire literature with special reference to the Euro is Richard Baldwin’s “The Euro’s Trade Effect.”This critique (and my initial work) has been covered by the Economist and the Financial Times.I also recommend Jeff Frankel’s comments on this paper.
15. More papers of relevance: “Stylized Facts on Bilateral Trade and Currency Unions: Implications for Africa” by Tsangarides, Ewenczyk, and Hulej; “Exchange Rate Regimes and Trade” by Adam and Cobham; “What Determines Bilateral Trade Flows?” by Baxter and Kouparitsas; “Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance: A Latin American Perspective” by Edwards.
16. Philip Lane has produced a fine summary of the Real Effects of EMU that I recommend.

17. Jeff Frankel has written a fine analysis of the size of the trade effect of EMU that I like a lot.

18. Volker Nitsch continues to write interesting work in this area.

19. Thomas Baranga's job-market paper is relevant.
20. Theo Eicher and Henn have a "revised benchmark" estimated relevant paper.
21. Joan Costa i Font is circulating Revisiting the 'Rose Effect:' does it pass the Spanish Regional heterogeneity Test?"
22. Phillip Baur and Viktor Winschel are circulating "Bayes Network Analysis of Trade Effects of Currency Unions and Free Trade Agreements"
23. Jayjit Roy is circulating "On the Robustness of the Trade-Inducing Effects of Trade Agreements and Currency Unions"
24. Santos Silva and Tenreyro are circulating "Currency Unions in Prospect and Retrospect"
25. Meixin Guo (Tsinghua) is circulating "Hierarchical Bayesian Method for the Gravity Equations"
15. EMU and Swedish Trade” is available as a PDF file in my (boring B&W) version

    Currency unions might raise Swedish trade a lot.  Also available in the official (more photogenic color but larger) version; it was commissioned by the Swedish Employer’s Confederation.A press release by Svenskt Näringsliv is available. This report, along with a panel discussion, generated articles in Entreprenör, an editorial in Svenska Dagbladet and a slew of articles (by me, Lars Calmfors, and Carl B Hamilton) in Dagens Nyheter

16. EMU’s Potential Effect on British Trade: A Quantitative Assessment

    Currency unions might raise British trade a lot.Commissioned for Britain in Europe.This paper was discussed by, among others, the Financial Times, the Guardian, the Daily Telegraph, the Irish Times, and the Scotsman.It is reprinted in Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter

17. The Potential Effect of EMU Entry on British

    entry into EMU might raise British trade a lot. This was one of the “Submissions from Leading Academics” commissioned for HM Treasury to assess the effects of British entry into EMU (I’m #21 starting on p209, but my work is much criticized by others).The underlying research was discussed in the Treasury’s EMU Study “EMU and Trade” and mentioned in the Chancellor’s speech of June 9 2003, as well as the more entertaining shadow chancellor’s critique (Michael Howard, now leader of the British Conservative party).

Other Effects of Currency Union (on output, integration, …)

1. Is EMU Becoming an Optimum Currency Area? The Evidence on Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization

   The data set and key output is available in a Zip file.

3. EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization

   most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles.

   Available as a PDF file.  The data set and key output is available in a Zip file.

4. EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization: What Do We Know and What Does it Mean for Poland?”

   Poland is a good candidate for EMU accession on the basis of its trade and business cycle synchronization with the eurozone. This is a variant of "EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization" and was used for the National Bank of Poland's Report on Adopting the Euro. 

   Available as a PDF file.  The Polish data set is available in a Zip file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.
5. Checking Out: Exits from Currency Unions

   Countries leaving currency unions are larger, richer, more democratic, but no more volatile than those staying in currency unions.

   Journal of Financial Transformation 2007 A draft is available as a PDF file. The STATA data set is available as is key output. There is a small error in the data set.

   A more informal version that is easier to read is available

   as a PDF file and from Vox.
6. An Estimate of the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Growth

   (with Jeffrey Frankel)The line: currency unions might raise trade and output a lot.Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002.NBER WP 7857. CEPR DP 2631 (more up to date than the NBER version). A current draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII formats); (take note of the errors in my EP data set, from which it was derived), as is the panel (country/year) data set. Zipped sample output (for Table 2) is available. A longer version of Table V is available. Overhead transparencies for a seminar are available as a PDF file. Note that there was a (small) error in the data set used for the first version of the paper. Our op-ed piece in the Financial Times is available (in German) as is coverage of our piece in Canada’s National Post and coverage in the Independent.

   Dani Rodrik has a comment on our paper, which states that our results are sensitive to outliers, institutions and geography.Here is our response, which shows the robustness of our findings and the zipped sample output that underlies it (and provides even more sensitivity analysis). Santana-Gallego, Ledesma-Rodriguez, Perez-Rodriguez, and Cortes-Jimenez have written "Does a Common Currency Promote Countries' Growth via Trade and Tourism?

7. Currency Unions and International Integration

   (with Charles Engel) The line: currency unions are different.;Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2002.NBER WP 7872. CEPR DP 2659.A draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII/Excel formats), as is the panel (country/year) data set.The data sets are documented in the paper, though a (brief) documentation note is available here.Note that there was a (small) error in the data set used for the first version of the paper. Some zipped sample output is available as is a comprehensive set of output files (with programs embedded). You may want to check out “Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement” by Baxter and Kouparitsas. You may also want to check out “Estimation of Models for Country-Pair Data controlling for Clustered Errors” by Colin Cameron and Natalia Golotvina

   Common Currency Areas in Practice

   more than you want to know about currency unions. In Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates (Bank of Canada, 2001). A draft is available as a PDF file.The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII formats), as is the panel (country/year) data set

8. Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan?Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes

   (with Antonio Fatás) The line: currency unions have subtle effects on fiscal policy.CEPR DP 2692, IMF Staff Papers 2001.The data set is available in STATA, Excel or ASCII format.A draft is available as a PDF file.Sample output (corresponding to Table 3) is available.

most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles; so EMU is becoming an OCA. Available as a PDF file.  The data set and key output is available in zip file.

most people find both that EMU has raised trade, and that increased trade leads to more synchronized business cycles. Available as a PDF file. The data set and key output is available in a Zip file. Slides for presentation are available as a PDF file.;

Poland is a good candidate for EMU accession on the basis of its trade and business cycle synchronization with the eurozone. This is a variant of "EMU, Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization." Available as a PDF file.  The Polish data set is available in a Zip file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.

Countries leaving currency unions are larger, richer, more democratic, but no more volatile than those staying in currency unions. Journal of Financial Transformation 2007. A draft is available as a PDF file. The STATA data set is available as is key output. There is a small error in the data set. A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox

Similar fiscal deficits lead to similar business cycles.NBER WP 11580. CEPR DP 5188. Magyar Nemzeti Bank WP 2005.3.Tanszéki Tanulmányok 2005/4. A draft is available as a PDF file. A Hungarian version is available in Közgazdasági Szemle 2005. The main data is available in a zip-file.It is in 3 formats: STATA 8, STATA outsheet (ASCII, suitable for spreadsheets), and STATA dictionary (ASCII).Key output is available in a zip-file. Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file, and (slightly different) as a PowerPoint show. An accessible version (if you speak Hungarian) is available in Vilaggazdasag (Nov 22, 2005).

The New Palgrave.The line: I survey work on currency unions.A draft is available as a PDF file.

(with Charles Engel) The line: currency unions are different.Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2002.NBER WP 7872. CEPR DP 2659.A draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII/Excel formats), as is the panel (country/year) data set. The data sets are documented in the paper, though a (brief) documentation note is available here.Note that there was a (small) error in the data set used for the first version of the paper. Some zipped sample output is available as is a comprehensive set of output files (with programs embedded). You may want to check out “Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement” by Baxter and Kouparitsas. You may also want to check out “Estimation of Models for Country-Pair Data controlling for Clustered Errors” by Colin Cameron and Natalia Golotvina

more than you want to know about currency unions. In Revisiting the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates(Bank of Canada, 2001). A draft is available as a PDF file.The zipped bilateral data set is available (in STATA/ASCII formats), as is the panel (country/year) data set.

(with Jeffrey Frankel) The line: trade integration causes business cycle synchronization. Economic Journal 1998. Also circulating (in a less technical format, with application to Sweden) as "Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency " NBER WP 5700 CEPR DP 1473. The STATA data is available. The most current version is available as a PDF File. A longer version is also available as a PDF File. A short press release is available as a PDF File. If you’re interested in this work, you may want to check out: 1. “Determinants of Business Cycle Comovement” by Baxter and Kouparitsas 2. “Can the Standard International Business Cycle Model Explain the Relation between Trade and Comovement?” by Kose and Yi “Monetary Trade Integration, and Business Cycles …” by Flandreau and Maurel. Determinants of Business Cycle Synchonisation Across Euro Area Countries” by Böwer and Guillemineau, and Trade and Business Cycle Synchronization in OECD Countries” by Inklaar, Jong-a-Pin, and de Haan. “Comovement in GDP Trends and Cycles Among Trading Partners" by Blonigen, Piger, and Sly.

1. How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows

   (with Eugenio Cerutti and Stijn Claessens) The line: the global financial cycle explains little variation in capital flows. International Monetary Fund Economic Review 2019. Current shorter version (for publication, without all appendices). Current longer version. NBER WP 23,699. CEPR DP 12,075. BIS WP 661. IMF WP 17/193. Key output. Data. Long PowerPoint presentation for seminars. NBER presentation. Short PowerPoint presentation for conferences. Coverage in Financial Times.

2. Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports

   Quantitative easing and/or negative interest rates don't lead to export booms. Forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. Current version. Online appendices. NBER WP 24,817. An early version appeared as CEPR DP 11,748. Powerpoint presentation. Key output. Data.

3. Exchange Rate Behavior with Negative Interest Rates: Some Early Negative Observations

   (with Allaudeen Hameed) The line: negative nominal interest rates haven't affected exchange rate behavior. Current version; shorter version. Key output; data. Powerpoint presentation. CEPR DP 11,498, Pacific Economic Review 2018.

4. Does Government Intervention Affect Banking Globalization?

   (with Anya Kleymenova and Tomasz Wieladek). The line: Yes!  There's more evidence of financial protectionism during the global financial crisis. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2016. Current version (PDF). [Powerpoint Presentation] [Key Output] CEPR DP 11,108 NBER WP 21,981.

5. Capital Controls in the 21st Century

   (with Barry Eichengreen)  The line: international capital controls are really durable.  Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014. CEPR Policy Insight No. 72. Current version (PDF). Key output; Coverage in Economist

6. Financial Protectionism?

   (with Tomasz Wieladek) The line: after non-British banks are nationalized, they contract their British lending and raise interest rates; first evidence of financial protectionism. A newly revised draft is available as a PDF file, as is an earlier revision. Journal of Finance, 2014 (here's the version in their style). NBER WP 17073 (from NBER). CEPR DP 8404 (from CEPR). Bank of England External MPC DP 32 (from Bank of England). A non-technical version is available from VOXEU. Overhead slides are available for a presentation. A web-only appendix is available. Comparison with Ait-Sahalia et al. Key output is available.The data set cannot be posted (it's confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I'll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn't reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).

   • If you are interested in work like this, consider reading "Crises, Rescues and Policy Transmission Through International Banks" by Buch, Koch, and Kotter, and "The Flight Home Effect" by Gianetti and Laeven.
     

   • Coverage from City AM, the Independent, and the Telegraph.

7. Central Bank Swaps and International Dollar Illiquidity

   (with Mark Spiegel). The line: it's easy in theory to explain why the dollar appreciated during the 2008 financial crisis. Global Journal of Economics.A draft is available as a PDF file.

8. The Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure

   (with Mark Spiegel). The line: countries with greater trade and financial exposure to the United States had smaller crises in 2008. Pacific Economic Review, 2010 (best paper award winner). A draft is available as a PDF file. NBER WP 15358. CEPR Discussion Paper 7466. A PowerPoint presentation is available. The STATA-10 data set Key

9. The Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning

   (with Mark Spiegel). The line: it's easier to figure out which countries were affected by the 2008 financial crisis than why.  Japan and the World Economy, 2012. NBER WP 15357.  CEPR Discussion Paper 7354. A draft is available as a PDF file. A simpler version is available (from Vox) A PowerPoint presentation is available. The STATA-10 data set Key output

   • If you are interested in work like this, consider reading "On Factors Explaining the 2008 Financial Crisis" by Eduardo Acosta-Gonzalez, Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez, and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero.

   • Non-Economic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties

     (with Mark Spiegel).The line: joining international environmental treaties has economic benefits. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2009. NBER WP 13,988. CEPR DP 5942. A new draft is available as a PDF file, as is an older draft. Overhead slides are available as a PDF file.  A user-friendly executive summary is available from Vox. A ZIP file containing relevant data is available as is output

   • Forecasting International Financial Prices with Fundamentals: How do Stocks and Exchange Rates Compare?

     (with Robert Flood). The line: stock markets are j ust as difficult to forecast as exchange rates, even with future “fundamentals.” In Globalization and Economic Integration. (Gaston and Khalid editors, Edward Elgar 2010). An earlier version circulated as "Why So Glum? The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market" CEPR DP 6714. A draft is available as a PDF file, as are overhead slides. The STATA data set is available as is key output

   • International Financial Remoteness and Macroeconomic Volatility

     (with Mark Spiegel).The line: the further a country is from financial activity, the more volatile its business cycle. Journal of Development Economics, 2009. NBER WP 14,336. A current version of the paper is available as a PDF file, as are earlier long and short versions, and overhead slides. The STATA data set is available as is key output.

     • If you are interested in work like this, consider reading "Financial Remoteness and the Net External Position" by Schmitz (ECB WP No. 1330).

   • A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Bretton Woods, Reversed

     Bretton Woods may or may not have been revived; it’s certainly been reversed.  Journal of International Money and Finance 2007.  NBER WP 12,711. CEPR DP 5854.  A draft is available as a PDF file. The data sets are available as is key output. Overhead slides are available as a PDF file.Slides for a presentation at the Italian Senate are available as a PDF file. International Herald Tribune coverage, Nov 28 2006 (PDF).Indian Express coverage, Jan 27 2007 (PDF). A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox.

     • Related: Are International Financial Crises a Barbarous Relic? Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Vaccine is available as a PDF file and CEPR Policy Insight No. 1

   • Offshore Financial Centers: Parasites or Symbionts?

     (with Mark Spiegel). The line: offshore financial centers are good for domestic bank competition, even if they encourage tax evasion and money laundering. Economic Journal 2007. NBER WP 12044.CEPR DP 5081. A draft of the original version of the paper is available as a PDF file, as is a revision. The zipped Stata data set is available (along with many of the underlying data sets, usually in Excel spreadsheets).Key output for the original is available in a zipped file, as is a set of output files for the revision. Overhead slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.  Economist coverage available (as a PDF file). A press release is available as a PDF file.

   • Equity Integration in Times of Crisis

     (with Robert P. Flood). The line: financial crises can affect the integration of stock markets. In Market Discipline. A short draft is available as a PDF file, as is a longer working paper version (easier to read, more results). The zipped data sets are available in Excel, E-Views 4 and STATA 8 formats (2.1 MB). The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file. Overheads for a talk are available as a PDF file.

   • Equity Integration in Japan An Application of a New Method

     the Tokyo stock exchange isn’t always integrated.Monetary and Economic Studies 2004.IMES Discussion Paper No. 2004-E-1. A draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped data sets are available in Excel (raw), STATA 8 (easy), and E-Views 4 (estimation) formats (2.0 MB). The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file. Overheads for a talk are available as a PDF file.

   • A New Approach to Asset Integration

     (with Robert P. Flood).The line: asset markets aren’t very integrated.Forthcoming in Contemporary Issues in International Finance. A preliminary draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped data sets are available in E-Views 4, STATA 8, and ASCII (“outsheet”) formats in a large (5 MB) zipped file. A large (5 MB) zipped Excel spreadsheet with the raw and massaged equity data is available. A zipped set of Stata7 “small multiple” time-series plots of the series are available for the neurotic.A zipped set of 10 E-Views 4 programs which produce key (all?) results in the paper is available, along with corresponding output. Here’s a STATA version (with output) and the E-Views program (and output) it replicates, along with some starting value sensitivity analysis. Overhead slides for presentations are available as a PDF file

   • A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default, and Credit

     (with Mark Spiegel). The line: international loans follow trade patterns.IMF Staff Papers 2004. NBER WP 9285.CEPR DP 3539. A current version is available as a PDF file (here are the derivations).Overhead slides for transparencies are available as a PDF file, and there’s also a PowerPoint presentation.Supporting output. The data set is available in zipped STATA 7.0 format.

     • If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the excellent discussion provided by Mark Wright

     • Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis: The Interest Rate Defense in the 1990s

       UIP still works badly.(with Robert Flood), presented at Assaf Razin’s festschrift in Tel Aviv, March 2001.CEPR DP 2943, , and IMF WP/01/207.A draft is available as a PDF file.A shorter version that focuses exclusively on UIP is also available; it is published in IMF Staff Papers 2002. A version is also in Economic Policy in the International Economy(Helpman and Sadka, eds, Cambridge Press, 2003). The data set is available as a STATA (ASCII) dictionary file. The pooled data set is also available as a STATA data set. The data sources are described more fully in a PDF file. Sample output for UIP tests is available.

     • Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes

       Noise traders make fixed exchange rates seem reasonable. CEPR DP 2142 NBER WP 7104 RBNZ G99/2, Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002. A draft is available as a PDF File. The E-Views (interest and exchange rate) and STATA (macroeconomic) data sets used in the original working paper are available, as are the data sets (in ASCII, Excel and STATA formats) used in the revision. Sample output (corresponding to Table 1) is available.

       • If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the critique by Geraint Jones (MIT Economics) “Prevention or Cure? Exchange Rate Regimes and Noise Traders”

       • Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle

         We estimate the peso puzzle. Review of Economics and Statistics 1996 NBER WP 4928 Available as a PDF File. The STATA data set.

       • Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals

         The line: macro fundamentals don’t vary across exchange rate regimes, but exchange rates do. The Journal of Monetary Economics1995, NBER WP 4503 Available as a PDF File.

       
       
       

Financial Asset Integration

1. Capital Controls in the 21st Century

   (with Barry Eichengreen) The line: international capital controls are really Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014. CEPR Policy Insight No. 72. Current version (PDF). Key output; STATA data set.

   • Coverage in Economist.
   • The Expected Marginal Rate of Substitution in the United States and Canada

     the TSE and the NYSE stock markets don’t seem very integrated. In Canada in the Global Economy 2004. A draft is available as a PDF file, Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. The zipped data sets are available in STATA 8 format (4.3 MB).   Sample output is available in a zipped file.

   • Estimating the Expected Marginal Rate of Substitution: A Systematic Exploitation of Idiosyncratic Risk

     (with Robert P. Flood).The line: stock markets don’t seem very integrated. Journal of Monetary Economics 2005. Earlier versions are available as NBER WP 10805. CEPR DP 4684. The original version is available as a PDF file, as is a dramatic revision. Overhead slides are available as a PDF file. The zipped data sets are available in STATA 8 format (4.3 MB). Sample output is available in a zipped file; here are some (monthly, dis-aggregated, GMM, without intercepts) estimates from the 2005 revision.An appendix on a permanent-transitory decomposition of idiosyncratic shocks is available as a PDF file.

     • If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the critiques: 1 target="_blank" Marshall’s “Comment” and 2 Parsley and Schlag’s “Measuring Financial Integration via Idiosyncratic Risk: What Effects are We Really Picking Up?

     • Equity Integration in Times of Crisis

       (with Robert P. Flood). The line: financial crises can affect the integration of stock markets. In Market Discipline. A short draft is available as a PDF file, as is a longer working paper version (easier to read, more results). The zipped data sets are available in Excel, E-Views 4 and STATA 8 formats (2.1 MB). The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file. Overheads for a talk are available as a PDF file.

     • Equity Integration in Japan An Application of a New Method

       The Tokyo stock exchange isn’t always integrated.Monetary and Economic Studies 2004. IMES Discussion Paper No. 2004-E-1. A draft is available as a PDF file. The zipped data sets are available in Excel (raw), STATA 8 (easy), and E-Views 4 (estimation) formats (2.0 MB).The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file. Overheads for a talk are available as a PDF file.

     • Financial Integration: A New Methodology and an Illustration

       (with Robert P. Flood). The line: the S&P isn’t integrated with the NASDAQ. Journal of the European Economic Association 2005. NBER WP 9880. CEPR DP 4027. IMF WP 04/110. A draft is available as a PDF file, as is a (Feb. 2004) revision of the paper, a later (Sept. 2004) revision, and a final (March 2005) revision. The zipped data sets are available in E-Views 4 and STATA 8 formats.  The E-Views programs and sample output are available in a zipped file. The E-Views programs and sample output for the current (not lagged) normalization are available in a zipped file. E-views materials for the second revision are available in a zipped file.   The original Fama-French factors are available at Ken French’s website. Overhead slides for presentations are available as a PDF file, as are slides for a general talk on asset integration with examples from different papers in PDF format and as a PowerPoint presentation.

     • A New Approach to Asset Integration

       (with Robert P. Flood). The line: asset markets aren’t very integrated. A shorter version is in Pacific Economic Review 2005; a longer version is forthcoming in Contemporary Issues in International Finance. A full draft is available as a PDF file as is a shorter version. The zipped data sets are available in E-Views 4, STATA 8, and ASCII (“outsheet”) formats in a large (5 MB) zipped file. A large (5 MB) zipped Excel spreadsheet with the raw and massaged equity data is available. A zipped set of Stata7 “small multiple” time-series plots of the series are available for the neurotic. A zipped set of 10 E-Views 4 programs which produce key (all?) results in the paper is available, along with corresponding output. Here’s a STATA version (with output) and the E-Views program (and output) it replicates, along with some starting value sensitivity analysis. Overhead slides for presentations are available as a PDF file.

1. “Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports"

   quantitative easing and/or negative interest rates don't lead to export booms. Forthcoming,Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking.

   [Current version] [Online appendices] [NBER WP 24,817] [CEPR DP 11,748] [Powerpoint presentation].  [Key output]  [Data.]


2. Does Government Intervention Affect Banking Globalization?"

   Yes!  There's more evidence of financial protectionism during the global financial crisis.   

   [Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2016] [Current version] [Key output] [Powerpoint presentation] [CEPR DP 11,108] [NBER WP 21,981]


3. Financial Protectionism?  First Evidence

   after non-British banks are nationalized, they contract their British lending and raise interest rates; first evidence of financial protectionism.

   [A newly revised draft is available as a PDF file] [as is an earlier revision] [here's the version in their style] [NBER WP 17073][NBER] [CEPR DP 8404] [CEPR] [Bank of England External MPC DP 32] [Bank of England] A non-technical version is available from VOXEU.   [Overhead slides are available for a presentation] [A web-only appendix is available] [Comparison with Ait-Sahalia et al] [Key output is available.] The data set cannot be posted (it's confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I'll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn't reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time).

   If you are interested in work like this, consider reading "Crises, Rescues and Policy Transmission Through International Banks" by Buch, Koch, and Kotter, and "The Flight Home Effect" by Gianetti and Laeven.

   Coverage from City AM, the Independent, and the Telegraph



4. Surprising Similarities: Recent Monetary Regimes of Small Economies

   Monetary regimes have been stable during and since the global financial crisis, thanks to inflation targeting. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014

   [Current version (PDF)] [NBER WP 19,632]; [CEPR DP 9684].  [Powerpoint slides] [5-slide version] [Key output]; [STATA data set].
   1. In the blogosphere:FatasKrugman;Romanchuk; Gagnon
   2. Alex Kiermeier, Stephanie Mitchell, Sarah Schroder, and Paul Symon have found some duplicates in the data set and some other issues.


5. International Financial Integration and Crisis Intensity

   International financial integration had little effect on the cross-country intensity of the 2008-09 financial crisis.

   [A draft is available as a PDF file] [ADBI WP 341] [A Powerpoint presentation is available.] [The STATA-11 data set] [Key Output.]


6. Too Big to Fail: Some Empirical Evidence on the Causes and Consequences of Public Banking Interventions in the UK

   The British authorities rescue large banks, and the rescues work.

   [A draft is available][Journal of International Money and Finance] [Presentations slides are available as a PDF file] [Sample output for key tables]

   The data set cannot be posted (it's confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I'll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication.



7. Dollar Illiquidity and Central Bank Swap Arrangements During the Global Financial Crisis

   It's hard in practice (but not in theory) to explain why the dollar appreciated during the 2008 financial crisis.

   [Journal of International Economics] [NBER WP 17359] [CEPR DP 8557.] [An updated draft is available as a PDF file] [Technical appendix] [Overhead Slides] [The abbreviated version of the STATA-11 data set] [the complete data set] [Key]


8. The Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning

   It's easier to figure out which countries were affected by the 2008 financial crisis than why.

   Mark Spiegel Japan and the World Economy [NBER WP 15357] [CEPR Discussion Paper 7354.] [A draft is available as a PDF file] [A simpler version is available] [The STATA-10 data set] [Key output]
   If you are interested in work like this, consider reading
   • On Factors Explaining the 2008 Financial Crisis" by Eduardo Acosta-Gonzalez, Fernando Fernandez-Rodriguez, and Simon Sosvilla-Rivero.


9. The Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure

   Countries with greater trade and financial exposure to the United States had smaller crises in 2008.

   [Pacific Economic Review, 2010] [A draft is available as a PDF file] [NBER WP 15358].  [CEPR Discussion Paper 7466].  [A PowerPoint presentation is available].  [The STATA-10 data set] [Key]


10. Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: An Update

    it's tough to find pre-2008 "early warning" indicators of countries that suffered big recessions in 2008-09.

    [European Economic Review] 2011 .  [CEPR DP 7901] [NBER WP 16,243.] [A draft is available as a PDF file] [A PDF presentation is available] [A combined longer presentation is available] [The STATA-11 data se]t. [Key output]
    If you're interested in work like this, check out
    1. Looking for a Needle in a Haystack
    2. Weathering the Crisis

Unconventional Monetary Policy

1. Why Have Negative Nominal Interest Rates Had Such a Small Effect on Bank Performance?  Cross Country Evidence

   Negative interest rates havn't hurt bank profits.  Forthcoming,European Economic Review

   [Current version] [CEPR DP 13,0106].  [NBER WP 25,004].  [Key output].  [Shorter Powerpoint presentation] [Longer Powerpoint presentation]. 
   The data set cannot be posted (it's confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I'll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn't reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time) [Data]


2. Currency Wars? Unconventional Monetary Policy Does Not Stimulate Exports

   The line: quantitative easing and/or negative interest rates don't lead to export booms.  Forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking.

   [Current version] [Online appendices].  [NBER WP 24,817].  An early version appeared as [CEPR DP 11,748] [Powerpoint presentation] [Key output] [Data.]


3. Exchange Rate Behavior with Negative Interest Rates: Some Early Negative Observations

   Negative nominal interest rates haven't affected exchange rate behavior.

   [Current version] [shorter version] [Key output] [data.] [Powerpoint presentation] [CEPR DP 11,498] Pacific Economic Review

Exchange Rate Determination

1. Forecasting International Financial Prices with Fundamentals: How do Stocks and Exchange Rates Compare?

   Negative interest rates havn't hurt bank profits.  Forthcoming, European Economic Review

   [Current version] [CEPR DP 13,010].  [NBER WP 25,004].  [Key output].  [STATA Data] [overhead slides]

   The data set cannot be posted (it's confidential), but if you send me an appropriate program (check the posted output!), I'll run it for you, at least for a reasonable period of time after publication, so long as it doesn't reveal confidential information (or waste too much of my time



2. Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate

   more fertile countries have more appreciated real exchange rates.

   [Canadian Journal of Economics] [2009] [NBER WP 13,263] [CEPR DP 6312] [A revised draft is available as a PDF file] [an earlier version] [overhead slides] [The STATA data set is available] [key output] [Business Times] [easy to print] [the South China Morning Post and Today]


3. Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Capital Mobility: Empirical Evidence on the Holy Trinity

   Mundell’s trinity doesn’t work so well in practice.

   The Journal of International Money and Finance [NBER WP 4630] [CEPR DP 929] [The STATA data set and output are available.]


4. A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries

   PPP works OK at medium and long horizons.

   [The Journal of International Economics] [Jeffrey Frankel] [NBER WP 5006] [CEPR DP 1128] . [The STATA data set]


5. Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates

   We survey nominal exchange rate determination.

   [The Handbook of International Economics]

Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes

1. A Presence of Absence: The Benign Emergence of Monetary Stability

   Inflation Targeting (and EMU) has led to unprecedent global monetary stability

   [Working paper] (PDF).  [Powerpoint Presentation] [STATA Data] [Key Output]


2. Bond Vigilantes and Inflation

   a long-maturity, nominal, domestic-currency bond market lowers inflation.  International Journal of Central Banking, 2018.  Earlier versions available as

   [CEPR DP 10,124].   [NBER WP 20,494].   [Current version] (PDF).  [Powerpoint presentation] Key output; [STATA data set]; [some data on bond dates]


3. Surprising Similarities: Recent Monetary Regimes of Small Economies

   Monetary regimes have been stable during and since the global financial crisis, thanks to inflation targeting.

   [Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014] [Current version (PDF)] [NBER WP 19,632]; [CEPR DP 9684].  [Powerpoint slides] ([5-slide version]); [Key output]; [STATA data set] In the blogosphere: Fatas; Krugman;Romanchuk; Gagnon Alex Kiermeier, Stephanie Mitchell, Sarah Schroder, and Paul Symon have found some duplicates in the data set and some other issues.


4. Flexing Your Muscles: Effects of Abandoning Fixed Exchange Rates For Greater Flexibility

   China has a little to fear from leaving its fixed exchange rate policy.

   [NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics], A draft is available as a PDF file.  Slides for a presentation are available.  The STATA-11 data sets are available; key output is available.
   


5. Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era: Fixed, Floating, and Flaky

   we don't know much about the causes or consequences of different exchange rate regimes, and that's OK.

   [Journal of Economic Literature] [2011] [CEPR DP 7987.] [A draft is available as a PDF file] [Slides for a talk] [The STATA-11 data set] [Key Output.]


6. Exchange Rate Policy in Small Rich Economies

   Small rich countries shouldn't have floating exchange rates.

   [Open Economies Review][A draft is available as a PDF file.]  The [STATA-11 data set] is available.


7. Understanding Business Cycle Synchronization: Is Inflation Targeting Paving the Way to Asian Monetary Union?

   Inflation targeting seems to increase business cycle synchronization.

   In "[Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia]" (Barro and Lee, editors, Oxford University Press, 2011). [A draft is available as a PDF file] [a set of overhead slides] [zipped STATA data set] [key output]


8. Inflation Targeting and Business Cycle Synchronization

   Countries that target inflation tend to have more synchronized business.

   [A draft is available as a PDF file.] [Journal of International Money and Finance] [CEPR] Discussion Paper 7377. [A simpler version is available] [Slides for a presentation are available as a PDF file.] The [STATA data set is available] [output is available.]


9. Is Old Money Better Than New? Duration and Monetary Regimes.

   more durable monetary regimes, like inflation targeting, deliver better inflation than more fragile regimes (like fixed exchange rates).

   [Economics 2008] [CEPR DP 6529.] [A draft isavailable as a PDF file] [The STATA data set is available] [key output]


10. Checking Out: Exits from Currency Unions

    Countries leaving currency unions are larger, richer, more democratic, but no more volatile than those staying in currency unions.

    [Journal of Financial Transformation 2007] [A draft is available as a PDF file.] [The STATA data set is available] [key output] [Data set]

    A more informal version that is easier to read is available [as a PDF file] and [from Vox]



11. A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Bretton Woods, Reversed

    Bretton Woods may or may not have been revived; it’s certainly been reversed.

    [Journal of International Money and Finance 2007] [NBER WP 12,711.] [CEPR DP 5854] [A draft is available as a PDF file.] [The data sets] [key output] [Overhead slides] [Slides for a presentation] [International Herald Tribune coverage, Nov 28 2006] [PDF] [Indian Express coverage, Jan 27 2007] [PDF] A more informal version that is easier to read is available as a PDF file and from Vox

    Are International Financial Crises a Barbarous Relic?  Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Vaccine is [available as a PDF file] and [CEPR Policy Insight No. 1]

    If you’re interested in this, you may want to check out “On the International Effects of Inflation Targeting Shu Lin


12. Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes

    Noise traders make fixed exchange rates seem reasonable.

    [CEPR DP 2142] [NBER WP 7104] [RBNZ G99/2] [ 2002] [Current Version] The E-Views (interest and exchange rate) and STATA (macroeconomic) data sets used in the original working paper are available, as are the data sets (in ASCII, Excel and STATA formats) used in the revision. Sample output (corresponding to Table 1) is available.

    If you’re interested in this work, you should check out the critique by Geraint Jones (MIT Economics) “Prevention or Cure? Exchange Rate Regimes and Noise Traders



13. Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes

    Currency unions have subtle effects on fiscal policy.

    [CEPR DP 2692], [IMF Staff Papers 2001.] The data set is available in [STATA], [Excel] or [ASCII] format.  [Current Version] [Sample output]


14. Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility Without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics

    Good short-run exchange rate models aren’t macroeconomic.

    [Economic Journal] [1999] [CEPR DP 1944] . [Current Version] [The STATA data set]
15. Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle

    We estimate the peso puzzle.

    [Review of Economics and Statistics] 1996 [NBER WP 4928] [Current Version]. [The STATA data set]


16. Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals

    macro fundamentals don’t vary across exchange rate regimes, but exchange rates do.

    [The Journal of Monetary Economics] 1995, NBER WP 4503 [Current Version]

Country Size

1. Well-Being in the Small and in the Large

   Small countries and large countries have similar social and economic characteristics.

   [Monetary and Economic Studies] 2006 [IMES DP 2006-E-10] [Current Draft] [Key output] [The Stata data]


2. Size Really Doesn’t Matter: In Search of a National Scale Effect

   The size of a country’s population has little effect on well-being.

   [Journal of the Japanese and International Economies] [NBER WP 12191.] [CEPR DP 5350.] [Current Version] [Key output] [The key Stata data sets]. [Overhead transparencies(PDF file)]

   If you are interested in this work, you should read “Country Size and Business Cycle Volatility: Scale Really Matters” by Davide Furceri and Georgios Karras



3. Cities and Countries

   The distribution of country sizes is mysteriously similar to that of city sizes.

   [Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking] [2006] [NBER WP 11762.] [CEPR DP 5235.] [Current Version] [Key output] [The key Stata data sets] [Overhead transparencies(PDF file)]
   1. A new critique is "Gibrat's Law for Countries" by Gonzalez-Val and Sanso-Navarro.
   2. If you're interested in this, you should check out "Testing for Zipf's Law" by Carlos Urzua.
   3. A presentation of this paper in honor of John Quigley is available, as are the overheads.

Miscellaneous

1. Management Education in a Turbulent World Shanghai Oct 2020
2. Why Should Everyone Care about Chinese Savings? Singapore June 2020
3. Tariffs,Trade and Trump, Singapore Feb 2020
4. Causes and Effects of Trade Tensions (short), Singapore Jan 2020
5. A Study of the Impact of Data Sharing on article Citations Using Journal Policies as a natural Experiment

   (with Garret Christensen, Allan Dafoe, Edward Miguel, and Don Moore) The line: actual de facto data sharing increases citations, but a stated de jure policy on data sharing does not. PLOS|One, Dec 2019.

6. Political Borders and Bank Lending in Post-Crisis America

   (with Matthieu Chavaz). The line: banks that received TARP funds made more loans inside the districts of their congressional representatives. Review of Finance 2019. Longer version (PDF); slightly shorter version. CEPR DP 11,595. NBER WP 22,806. Key output; data; Powerpoint presentation. Cato Research Brief 67.

7. Causes and Effects of Trade Tensions, Singapore Nov 2019
8. Trade Tensions and Financial Stability, Seoul Nov 2019 (presentation) "Causes of Trade Tensions and their Consequences for Financial Stability" (corresponding paper) available in PDF format
9. Sequencing Economic Reform: How does China Compare?, Shanghai Sept 2019
10. The Effect of European Monetary Union on Trade, Berkeley
11. Tariffs, Trade, and Trump, Auckland, Feb 2019
12. Regional Responses to Protectionism and Financial Instability, Canberra, Aug 2018
13. Global Monetary Policy, Canberra, Aug 2018
15. Trump and Trade, ABFER, Aug 2018
16. Some Comments on the World Economy, Berkeley-Haas Alumni, April 2018
17. Spillovers or Scapegoats? Why Small Countries Should Not Fear Center-Country Monetary and Financial Policy Singapore May 2017
18. Brexit, Berkeley-Haas Alumni April 2017
19. Endogenous Optimum Currency Areas: Where do we Stand? Harvard April 2017
20. Consequences of Brexit, Amsterdam March 2017
21. Chinese Growth, Berkeley-Haas Alumni, April 2016
22. EMU Slides, Berkeley-Haas Alumni, April 2015
23. US Monetary Policy Notes, CELAP May 2014
24. EMU Notes, CELAP May 2014
25. The CEPR, International Trade, and the Single Market in Europe (for CEPR 30th Anniversary Conference)
26. Much ado about EMU, revised Summer 2012
27. Recent Developments in International Financial Markets and Europe
28. Much ado about EMU, Spring 2012
29. EMU Presentation for Haas Advisory Board, February 2012
30. Keynote presentation for CEEI 2011
31. A presentation on Exchange Rate Regimes for the Bank of England, August 2010
32. A presentation on the 2008 Crisis for Haas Alumni, April 2010
33. Review of Klein and Shambaugh's Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era The dollar's direction in 2009
34. Thoughts on the direction of the dollar in 2007
35. Introduction to East Asian Seminar on Economics-18 (2007)
36. Some thoughts on exchange rate modeling in 2007
37. Introduction to East Asian Seminar on Economics-17 (2006)
38. Introduction to East Asian Seminar on Economics-16 (2005)
39. A presentation on recent (as of 2005) developments in OCA Empirics is available
40. A summary of my thoughts on currency union and trade is available as a PowerPoint presentation.
41. Presentation on “A New Paradigm for Asian Development: Chinese Growth, Exports, and the Exchange Rate
42. Introduction to East Asian Seminar on Economics-15 (2004)
43. Quantitative Goals for Monetary Policy” with Antonio Fatás and Ilian Mihov

    The line: quantitative goals for central banks help lower inflation. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 2007; also NBER WP 10846, CEPR DP 4445, and ECB WP615. The paper is available in both short and extended versions as PDF files; here’s the latest iteration. A draft of the original version is available as a PDF file. Overhead slides for a talk are available as a PDF file. The zipped Stata data set is available. Key output is available in a zipped file.

44. Exchange Rate Regimes and Stability
45. Introduction to East Asian Seminar on Economics-14 (2003)
46. Notes on the Effects of WTO Membership on FDI and Services

    The line: countries in the GATT/WTO don’t have more FDI flows or trade in services. A short memo is available as a PDF file or in html.

47. Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting out the Causality

    The Review of Economics and Statistics 2005 NBER WP 9201. The full version is available as a PDF file as is a much more user-friendly short version. The Stata data set is available, as is key output. Reviewed in NBER Digest, November 2002. If you are interested in this work, you should read “The Environmental Consequences of Trade” by Millimet

48. Overheads for a talk on Currency Crisis Modeling (a PDF file).

49. Estimating protection through residuals from the gravity model

    Background for chapter III of the September 2002 World Economic Outlook. The informal background paper is available as a PDF file; please do not quote without permission! Supportin Output STATA dataset The data set is described in a PDF file

50. Waiting for Work

    In Economics for an Imperfect World (Essays in Honor of Joseph E. Stiglitz) (Arnott, Greenwald, Kanbur, and Nalebuff, eds, MIT Press, 2003). This paper has been adapted from NBER WP 3385.

51. What should Academics tell Policy-Makers about Monetary Union?

52. Risks to Lenders and Borrowers in International Capital Markets

    NBER WP 6886.

53. A Review of Some the Economic Contributions of Robert A. Mundell, Winner of the 1999 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics

    Available as a PDF file. Scandinavian Journal of Economics

54. Determinants of Agricultural and Mineral Commodity Prices

    Link to the RBA Conference Volume The STATA data set. Key output is available. A draft is available a PowerPoint presentation.

Comments

1. Comments on Rogoff’s “Debt Supercycle versus Secular Stagnation” AMPF May 2024
2. Comments on Engel's "The Implications of Digital Currency for Monetary Policy and the International Financial System" Singapore Nov 2018
3. Comments on De Gregorio, Eichengreen, Ito and Wyplosz's "IMF Reform: The Unfinished Agenda" Geneva May 2018
4. Comments on Iacoviello and Navarro's "Foreign Effects of Higher U.S. Interest Rates" FRBSF Nov 2017
5. Comments on Frankel's "Systematic Managed Floating" Singapore AMPF May 2017 [Output and Data]
6. Comments on Polak's "The Euro's Trade Effect: A Meta-Analysis" Jan 2017
7. Comments on Mitchener and Pina's "Pegxit: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard" Santa Clara Oct 2016 [Output and Data]
8. Comments on Agarwal and Kimball's "Beaking Through the Zero Lower Bound" AEA Meetings Jan 2016
9. Comments on Bordo, Choudhri, Fazio and MacDonald's "The Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Balassa-Samuelson Effects Reconsidered" AEA Meetings Jan 2016
10. Comments on Dutt, Santacreu and Traca's "The Gravity of Experience" ABFER May 2015 [Output]
11. Comments on Cheung and Rime's "The Offshore Renminbi Exchange Rate ..." ABFER May 2014
12. Comments on Ghosh, Qureshi, and Tsangarides's "Friedman Redux ..." NBER March 2014 [Output]
13. Comments on Tang and Wu's "Trade Credit, Bank Credit and Financial Crises" Wellington June 2013
14. Comments on Forbes, Fratzscher, Kostka, and Straub's "Bubble Thy Neighbor" San Francisco November 2012
15. Comments on Lei, Wang, and Zhao's "Retirement Patterns in China" Taipei June 2012
16. Comments on Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe's "Prudential Policy for Peggers" Chicago Jan 2012
17. Comments on Berka and Deverux's "What Determines European Real Exchange Rates" Beijing June 2011
18. Comments on Kim, Kim, Song, and Yie's "Financial Integration and Capital Account Re-Regulation" Seoul May 2011
19. Comments on Eaton, Kortum, Neiman, and Romalis' "Trade and the Global Recession" Sydney June 2010
20. Comments on O'Rourke's "Trade, the Great Depression and Today" Rome July 2009
21. Comments on Mitchener and Voth's "Trading Silver for Gold" Hong Kong January 2009
22. Comments on Lane's "International Financial Integration and Japanese Economic Performance" San Francisco December 2008
23. Comments on di Giovanni and Levchenko's “Putting the Parts Together ...” Cambridge July 2008
24. Comments on Bauer and Herz's “Does it Pay to Defend ...” Crete May 2008
25. Comments on Burnside, Eichenbaum, and Rebelo's “Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle” Cambridge March 2008
26. Comments on Henry’s “Capital Account Liberalization” Santa Cruz October 2007
27. Comments on Flandreau and Accominotti’s “Does Bilateralism Promote Trade?” Paris June 2006
28. Comments on Fukuda and Kon’s “International Currency and the US Current Account Deficits” EASE Hawaii June 2006 [Full Version]
29. Comments on Fukuda and Ono’s “On the Determinants of Export Prices: History vs. Expectations” Tokyo December 2005
30. Comments on Tytell and Wei’s “Global Capital Flows and National Policy Choices” Santa Cruz October 2005
31. Comments on Blanchard, Giavazzi, and Sa’s “The US Current Account and the Dollar” Berkeley September 2005
32. Comments on Cheung and Chinn’s “Why the Renminbi Might be Overvalued (but Probably Isn’t)”, FRBSF September 2005
33. Comments on Lane and Milesi-Ferretti’s “Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates”, FRBNY December 2004
34. Comments on Crucini and Shintani’s “Persistence in Law-of-One-Price Deviations” Evidence from Micro-data”, NBER Summer Institute July 2004
35. Comments on Subramanian and Wei “The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly but Unevenly” [Output and STATA data]
36. Comments for American Economic Association Meetings, January 2004 Comments for American Economic Association Meetings, January 2004
37. Comments for Australasian Macro Workshop, September 2003
38. Comments for EASE-14, September 2003 [Output]
39. Comments for an IMF Conference, January 2003
40. Comments for an ADB Conference, July 2002 [Comments on Ito and Park]
41. Comments on Dowrick for EASE 13, June 2002.
42. Comments on von Hagen and Zhou for a conference at the Sveriges Riksbank, May 2002 and for the May paper (to be presented).
43. Comments on Drehmann, Goodhart and Krueger Economic Policy 2002 are available as a PDF file
44. Discussion of Alesina, Barro and Tenreyro for NBER MacroAnnual.
Overhead Slides [Final Comment]
45. A table for a discussion of Melitz and Nitsch at the Fordham Currency Union conference
46. Comments on Drehmann, Goodhart and Krueger for Economic Policy Oct 2001 are available as a PDF file
47. “Comments on Glick and Hutchison ‘Banking and Currency Crises: How Common are Twins.”
48. “Comment on “Is the Crisis Problem Growing More Severe” by Bordo, Eichengreen, Klingebiel and Martinez-Peria.”